中英對照版》2020球季會有的8種不同

8 ways the 2020 season will be ... different

2020球季會有的8種不同

原文連結：https://www.mlb.com/news/ways-the-2020-season-will-be-different

原文作者／Mike Petriello

What is the 2020 Major League Baseball season going to look like? Well, nothing you've ever seen before, obviously. The season will only be 60 games long. It will be played in the midst of a global pandemic. The NL will have the DH. Extra inning rules are changed. Roster limits are changed. Some high-risk players may choose not to participate. 

2020年的美國職棒大聯盟球季看起來會像什麼樣子？這個嘛，顯然將是你從所未見的。球季只有60場比賽。而且在全球疾病大流行中開打。國聯將開始設有DH。延長賽的規則將改變。限制球隊陣容的規則也有調整。一些高風險的球員可以選擇不要參賽。

We can't treat it like a normal season, because it isn't. While we keep one eye on the field, we keep another on the global health situation. You can't have one without the other.

我們不能像看待正常球季一樣看待本季，因為他完全不同。 當我們關注球場的事務，我們也要關心全球的疫情狀況。你不能顧此失彼。

That all means that this season is going to be ever so weird, and not all of that weirdness is going to be good. But a lot of it will be, or at least might be. Let's touch on eight of the most interesting and unusual things you'll see this year.

這意謂著這個球季將會很奇特，而且不會全是好事。但其中一些會是好事...或至少可能是。我們來討論今年8件最有趣而且罕見的事情。

1) The sacrifice bunt is going to disappear.

犧牲觸擊將會消失

This one is so interesting to us that we went and wrote a whole separate article on it, so please go take a look at that. But here's the short version, anyway: In 2019, there were only 776 sacrifice bunts, or .16 per team game. That's the lowest in history, and new lows have been set regularly each year for many years now. You don't need us to tell you that sac bunts are not cool.

這件事對我們而言，實在太有趣，所以我們單獨為此寫了一篇文章，可以去看看。這裡則是簡短的版本，總而言之，2019年有776個犧牲觸擊，也就是每場比賽有0.16個犧牲觸擊。是有史以來最低的，數年前開始，每年的數字就持續創下新低。不用我們來告訴你犧牲觸擊實在不ok。

But, as you might expect, most of them come from pitchers -- 56%, to be exact, in 2019. Guess who won't be hitting in 2020? Pitchers. Not in National League games, not in games where AL clubs are visiting NL parks, not anywhere, ever. (They can still pinch-hit, to be sure, but that's unlikely.) So long, more than half of an already record-low number of sac bunts.

但是，正如你所預期的，很多犧牲觸擊來自於投手——更準確來說，這個數字在2019年占了56％。猜猜看誰不會在2020年打擊？投手。不在國聯比賽打擊了，也不在美聯球隊作客國聯主場時打擊，通通不再存在了。（準確來說，他們還是可以代打，但不太可能）每年創新低、一半以上的犧牲打擊，再見了。

As we got into in detail in the fuller piece, it's not just that pitchers can't hit, even though they can't. They can't really bunt, either, contrary to the popular belief that a bunt attempt is a guaranteed win. Remember, you might be envisioning that perfectly placed bunt to move the runner along, but what's really going to be gone is a lot of, well, this：

如果我們討論得更細一點，把故事講得更完整，投手不只是打不好而已，儘管他們本來就不能再打了。他們也不應該再觸點了，與普遍認為觸點是有利的保證相反。記住，你想像中投手觸點可以推進打者，但事實上很多時候會形成，嗯，這個：（譯者註：原文是投手觸點成飛球遭接殺，造成雙殺的影片）

2) Some starter is going to go an entire season undefeated -- and others, winless.

一些先發投手將會整季所向披靡——其他會一勝難求

Over a 60-game season, with a traditional five-man rotation, you'd expect a starter to receive 12 starts. Obviously, nothing about this is going to be traditional, and maybe you'll see aces squeeze in some more on short rest later on, but let's go with a dozen for now. What can happen over 12 starts?

60場比賽的球季，加上傳統的5人輪值，你會期待先發投手有12場先發機會。但顯而易見的，一切不會再如傳統的印象，隨著球季進展，你可能會看到王牌投手縮短休息時間，擠出更多先發，但先以12場計算就好，12場先發會發生什麼事情。

That's easy enough to look up, so let's check back on 2019, and see how many starters made it a dozen consecutive starts without a loss, and ... oh, wow. It happened 14 times, if we exclude Ryne Stanek's opener situation. Gerrit Cole lost on May 22 and then not again for the rest of the season, a streak of 22 starts. 

這很好預測，我們來看看2019年球季，有多少先發投手連續12場先發後都尚未吞敗，答案是...哇喔！發生了14次，如果我們排除Ryne Stanek開幕戰的情況。Gerrit Cole在5月22日吞敗，剩下整個球季，連續22場比賽沒有再吞敗過。

Stars like Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, and Mike Clevinger had streaks of 12 or more games without a loss. Not-stars like Wade Miley and Zach Davies did, too. This is going to happen.

一些明星球員像Aaron Nola、Max Scherzer、Mike Clevinger都有連續12場或更多的先發場次沒有吞敗。一些非明星球員像是Wade Miley、Zach Davies也做到了。這本來就會發生。

And what about the other side? What about a dozen starts without a single win? That happened 17 non-opener times, and again, it's a mix of stars (Jack Flaherty and Yu Darvish) and non-stars (David Hess and Peter Lambert). This is going to happen, too. 

那對另外一面而言呢？像是12場比賽贏不下一場？不從開幕戰開始算起，這在2019年球季發生了17次，而且還有明星球員參與其中（Jack Flaherty及達比修有），還有非明星球員（David Hess及Peter Lambert）。這也本來就會發生。

Some poor starting pitcher is going to enter his 12th and final start of the season on Sept. 25 or so with the big goose egg next to his name. Count on it.

一些表現不好的先發投手將會在9月25日迎來他的第12場先發，同時擔心他的名字旁邊會被掛上一顆大鴨蛋。等著看吧。

3) The strikeout rate will go down, finally. Probably. By a little.

終於，三振率會下降。應該吧...下降一點點  

We set a new record for strikeout rate pretty much every year -- 23% in 2019, up from 18% in 2009, and 16.4% in 1999 -- and the reasons why are clear: Pitchers are nastier than ever, velocity keeps going up, and no one gets to face a tired starter 130 pitches deep for the fourth time through a lineup anymore. The only way this changes is if life gets harder on pitchers.

幾乎每年的三振率都在創新高——2019是23％。2009年是18％，1999年是16.4％。原因很簡單：投手比以前更加厲害了，包括速度增快，而且不會再有打者可以對陣已經投了130球，而且已經面對四輪打線的疲累投手了。如果這要改變的話，除非投手的處境變得更艱苦。

Well, it's about to, in the NL, anyway. No longer will NL pitchers get to the bottom of the lineup and get the breather offered by facing the opposing starter. You already know that pitchers strike out more than regular hitters do, but let's just list this out to be sure.

嗯，無論如何，這在國聯這就要發生了。國聯投手不再可以趁對上最後一棒，也就是敵方先發投手時喘息一下。你應該本來就知道投手被三振比一般打者更多，但我們還是列出數字確認一下。

2019, pitchers hitting: 43.5% K rate
2019, non-pitchers hitting: 22.4% K rate

2019年投手打擊：43.5％被三振率。

2019年非投手打擊：22.4％被三振率。

Another way to say that is that pitchers took 2.7% of all plate appearances, but were responsible for 5.2% of all strikeouts. Obviously, there's more to strikeouts than just this; we don't know how effective pitchers on the mound will be after this incredibly long offseason. But just in the terms of "removing the worst batters from the equation," we might not see quite as many whiffs.

換句話說，投手占所有打席的2.7％，但卻吞下了5.2％的三振數。顯而易見的，比三振更難以預測的是，我們不知道投手經過超級長的休賽季後， 在投手丘上的宰制力會變得如何。但單單根據「把最差的打者從方程式中移除後」，我們不會再看到一樣多的揮棒落空。

Speaking of which ...

說到這個嘛

4) The 8th hitter in the NL is no longer going to get pitched around.

國聯的第8棒將不會再被投得開一點

"Pitch around, or intentionally walk, the eighth hitter to get to the pitcher batting," goes the age-old wisdom.

「無論是投得開一點或是故意四壞，第8棒的打者 打完，就輪到投手打擊 。」這是古老的智慧。

It's arguable that this is actually the right strategy, because by doing this, you cost yourself the chance of getting the eighth hitter out and having the pitcher lead off the next inning, but it's clear this has been a go-to move forever. Just look at the walk rate of the top eight spots in the lineup, split by league, over the last three years. The largest gap is at the eight spot.

這是否是好的策略還有爭論，因為這樣做，你會失去解決第8棒打者，而且讓打者下一局是第一名打者的機會，但顯然這將從此消失。看看過去3年，依美聯、國聯不同，前8棒的被保送率吧，最大的差別就是第8棒。（譯者註：美聯7.5％，國聯9.1％）

5) So long, pinch-hitters.

永別了，代打們

Okay, not entirely. There are still going to be platoon matchups, or a star hitter taking the day off coming in to take a high-leverage late-inning swing. You'll still hear the PA announcer intone, "Now hitting for the shortstop, number 24," etc. But you know who is most often being hit for in the first place, right? Pitchers. Obviously.

好啦，不是完全告別啦。總會有相同守備位置人員的替換，或者是明星球員休息一天，然後在比賽後半段再代打扮演關鍵一擊。你還是會聽到播音員誦讀：「現在由24號代打游擊手」之類的。但你知道誰總是被代打的第一人選吧。當然，就是投手。

Over the last three seasons in games with the DH available, there were 3,676 pinch-hit appearances. Over the last three seasons in games without the DH available, there were 13,027 pinch-hit appearances. So that's about three-and-a-half times as many pinch-hitters in games without the DH, and we don't need to tell you where those are coming from, do we?

過去3季，設有DH的比賽，出現3676次代打；未設有DH，則有13027次代打。沒DH的代打次數是有DH的3倍半，不必我們來告訴你多出來的數字從何而來吧。

We do not. Let's do it anyway. Over the last three years, in games without the DH, the pitcher's spot was hit for 10,687 times ... or about 82% of all pinch-hitting appearances in those games, and 64% of all pinch-hitting appearances in all games. 

我們不會。但還是談一下吧。過去3年，未設置DH的比賽，投手被代打了10687次，或是占了未設DH比賽的代打次數82％，占所有代打次數的64％。

Those are gone now, and that's maybe bad news for someone like San Diego's Greg Garcia, who by far has the most pinch-hitting appearances since 2017, with 164. (On the other hand: maybe he can get some DH time now.)

這些將不復存在了，這對教士隊的Greg Garcia這種人可能是壞消息，因為他是自2017年以來代打次數最多的打者，有164個打席。（另一方面來講：現在他或許有時候可以打DH）

And if there are fewer pitchers hitting in the NL, you know what might else happen?

而如果國聯投手打擊變少了，你知道會發生什麼事嗎？

6) The NL could be the higher-scoring league for the first time in nearly five decades.

國聯可能迎來睽違近50年來，第一次為得分較高的聯盟 。

Guess when the last time the NL outscored the AL? Go ahead, guess. If it was "not really at all since the AL got the DH" you'd be right, or close to it. (The AL got the DH in 1973; the NL slightly outscored them in '74, but not once in the 45 seasons since.)

猜猜看上一次國聯得分比美聯多已經是甚麼時候的事情了？再往前猜一點。如果答案是「自從美聯設有DH以後根本沒贏過」那你的答案是對的，或是接近了。（美聯在1973開始設置DH；國聯在1974年還能稍微得多一點分數，但此後45個球季就再也沒贏過了。）

That is almost entirely due to the fact that pitchers were taking up so many low-value plate appearances in the NL, which has been enough to overcome the fact that the NL has Coors Field, which is almost always the highest-scoring ballpark.

這幾乎可以歸因於投手在國聯實在製造了太多低價值的打席，甚至足以抵銷了國聯有Coors Field的事實，Coors幾乎一直是得分最多的球場。

Could that change in 2020? We took a spin over to the FanGraphs projected standings, which have been updated to account for the 60-game season and the NL DH, and guess what they say: The AL is projected for 4.82 runs/game. The NL? 4.91. It could happen.

這在2020會改變嗎？我們簡單地看一下數據網站FanGraphs預測的球隊排名，這項排名已經根據例賽60場、國聯設有DH來調整，猜猜看它們怎麼說：預測美聯每場比賽得4.82分。國聯呢？4.91。這真的可能會發生。

7) Home field advantage may or may not be an advantage.

主場優勢可能仍是，或可能不再是優勢

This almost never changes. Home teams won 52.9% of their games in 2019, and the average dating all the way back to integration in 1947 is 53.8%. There has never once been a season where the home team didn't win more than half the games, and you have to go all the way back to 1917's .506 home winning percentage to come even close. You'll get small movement around that 53% number, but it's safe to say that the home team has a slight 53/47 advantage in baseball.

這幾乎從未改變。主場球隊在2019年贏下了52.9％的比賽，如果將這個數字回溯至1947年黑白融合至今的整體平均也是53.8％。 還從未發生主場球隊沒有贏超過一半比賽的球季，你需要回溯至1917年.506的勝率，才找到比較接近的情況。通常各個球季都是在53％左右，如果棒球的主場球隊的有53對47的優勢是可靠的。

But why? The advantage of batting last certainly plays a role, and that won't change this year. But ... is it that, or the comfort of one's own bed, or not having had to travel into town the night before, or the roar of the crowd in your favor, or the chances of getting more favorable calls?

但從何而來呢？後攻當然扮演關鍵的角色，今年這個不會改變啦。但...會不會也是因為球員可以睡自家的床，或者不用舟車勞頓提前一晚到客場城市，或者可以有主場球迷的喊聲加持，或是可以得到更多利於己方的判決？

The correct answer is probably "some combination of all of the above," but in a world where fans won't be in attendance for some or all of the season -- and almost certainly won't be packed into a full house at any point -- we're about to find out how much this matters.

正確答案是「綜合以上原因」，但在球迷可能會持續一段時間或整季不在觀眾席的世界， 也幾乎可以確定在任何時間點都不會有滿場，我們就能驗證這到底有多大的影響。

There's no one right answer to this, of course. But there have been some studies done to try to figure it out. One, for example, noted that the home team got slightly more full count calls going their way. A 2016 FanGraphs analysis suggested that such an unconscious effect could account for "roughly 70 percent of home-field advantage."

當然，這個問題沒有一個絕對適合的答案。但已經有一些研究嘗試找出原因。其中之一，舉例而言，點出主場球隊稍微比較容易得到有利於他們的滿球數。一份2016年的FanGraphs分析指出，這種不經意的影響，大概占主場優勢70％的成因。

Without fans, does that still hold true? For the first time, we'll have an opportunity to see.

如果沒有球迷，上述發現還成立嗎？我們將有史上頭一遭的機會來檢視。

8) You might see a true rarity: A player skipping the Minors entirely.

你可能會見證非常罕見的事情：有球員完全跳過小聯盟

This has only happened 21 times, and not at all in more than a decade, since Mike Leake went right from Arizona State to the Reds back in 2010. Even that came with a caveat, because while Leake never pitched in the Minors after being drafted in '09, he did pitch in the Arizona Fall League first.

這在史上只有發生過21次，從Mike Leake 2010年從亞利桑那州直升紅人隊（譯者註：Leake 2009年短暫打過亞利桑那秋季聯盟），已經超過10年完全沒有發生過。Leake的事情還被發出警告過，因為Leake在09年被選秀選中後，沒有在小聯盟投過，他只有先在亞利桑那秋季聯盟投球。

Then again, if we're talking about caveats, the fact there potentially might not be Minor League baseball this year due to the pandemic certainly qualifies. That being the case, several teams added top prospects and 2020 Draft picks to their 60-man player pools, in hopes of at least getting them some practice reps. But it's not out of the question that in the right situation, one or more of them make it up to the big team.

如果我們談論的是警告，但事實上今年小聯盟因為疫情大爆發幾乎沒有比賽。如此一來，很多球隊把他們的頂級新秀以及2020年的選到的球員加入他們的60人名單，希望至少讓他們有一些替代的磨練機會。但還是沒辦法排除在特定情況，其中有一或多位球員直接上到大聯盟。

Who? It won't be a high schooler. It's probably more likely to be a pitcher than a hitter, because you can always make room for another arm. Teams out of contention may be less likely to bother. Our guess: Cubs lefty Burl Carraway, described as "a fast mover" by Cubs vice president of scouting Dan Kantrovitz, because you generally don't draft a reliever that high unless you think he really can help you pretty soon -- and the Cubs expect to be in the race.

至於是誰呢？不會是高中生。也比較有可能是投手而非打者，因為你總是可以為投手騰出名單。一些競爭力較弱的球隊可能沒有這方面的困擾。我們猜測：小熊隊的左投Burl Carraway，被小熊隊球探部門副總監Dan Kantrovitz形容是「快速的移動者」 ，因為你通常不會在那麼高的順位，選一個後援投手，除非你認為他很快就可以幫到球隊，而小熊隊希望保有競爭力。