中英對照版》12位可能成為4割男的候選人

標題：

12 candidates to hit .400 this season

12位可能成為4割男的候選人

原文連結：https://www.mlb.com/news/candidates-to-hit-400-2020-mlb-season

The 2020 season will consist of 102 fewer games than usual, which opens up a whole new world of possibilities. While counting-stat records will be safe for the time being, certain rate-stat marks will be within reach.

2020球季將會比平常少102場，這打開了一個新世界，充滿了許多可能性。雖然以總量計的數據統計尚屬安全，但一些以比率計的數據，就比較可能被破。

No player has hit .400 in a qualified season since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941. But there have been seven players since then to have at least a .400 average at the 60-game mark. 

自從Ted Williams1941年在符合資格的球季，創下.406的打擊率後，沒有再出現四割男過。但此後，至少有7名球員在球季進行60場比賽後，仍保持至少4成打擊率。

.400 BA through 60 team games, qualified hitters since 1942

自1942年以來，球季進行60場比賽時，符合資格、打擊率4成以上的打者有：
Chipper Jones, 2008: .409
Tony Gwynn, 1997: .403
Larry Walker, 1997: .417
Paul O’Neill, 1994: .417
Rod Carew, 1983: .411
Hank Aaron, 1959: .402
Ted Williams, 1948: .412

譯者註：這邊所謂符合資格（qualified），是指大聯盟規定打者的打席需符合平均每場例行賽3.1個打席，162場的話就是502個打席，才能競爭打擊王。60場比賽的話，就是186個打席。

No active player has done it, but there are four active players to hit .400 over any span of 60 team-games within a single season, as a qualified hitter.

上述名單不包括任何現役球員，但有4名現役球員，在單一球季中任何長達60場比賽的區間， 在符合資格下，擊出超過4成的打擊率。

Those hitters are José Altuve, in both 2016 and ‘17, Joey Votto in ‘16, Andrew McCutchen in ‘12 and Albert Pujols in ‘03. Free agent Hanley Ramírez, who has yet to officially retire, also did so, in ‘09.

這些打者是José Altuve，分別在2016、2017年達成上述成就；Joey Votto在16年、Andrew McCutchen在12年，以及Albert Pujols在03年都有達成。自由球員Hanley Ramírez還沒有正式退休，也有在09年達成此一成就。

Could one of them bat .400 in this abbreviated 60-game schedule? Could another player achieve the feat? Doing so this year could not be considered on par with Williams’ 1941, but it would be a fun novelty.

他們其中之一可以在這個縮水的球季打出4成打擊率嗎？或有其他的球員可以做到嗎？即便在今年做到，並無法跟1941年的Ted Williams等量齊觀，但仍新奇有趣。

Even so, the numbers say not to expect it. According to research by MLB.com senior data architect Tom Tango, the likelihood that any qualified player would hit .400 this season is 3%. But that’s still far higher than the chances in a regular, 162-game season, which are 0.012%. 

不過，數據呈現出不必有過多的期待，根據MLB.com的資深數據工程師Tom Tango指出，這個球季符合資格的打者，擊出超過4成打擊率的機率是3％。但已經遠高於162場例賽的機率，那就是0.012%。（譯者註：等於12/10萬，也就是每25000名球員才會出現3位）

While the odds are stacked against it, it’s still intriguing to imagine a serious pursuit stretching late into September. Here’s a look at 12 candidates to hit .400 this season.

雖然機率顯示挑戰重重， 但想像將有球員在9月時認真地追逐此項紀錄仍相當吸引人。以下是12個可能成為四割男的候選人。

SUPERSTARS

超級巨星組：

José Altuve, Astros

José Altuve，太空人隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .346 (2017)
Projected 2020 BA per Steamer: .296
Highest BA in qualified 60-games-played stretch: .420 (2017)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.346（2017）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.296

以60場比賽為計算區間，且打席數符合資格的最高打擊率：.420（2017）

Altuve has won three batting titles in his career, in 2014, ‘16 and ‘17. He’s hit above .300 in five of his eight qualified seasons, and one of the near misses was last season, when he hit .298. And Altuve has demonstrated he is capable of the sort of extended hot streak needed here. His .420 average over a span of 60 games in 2017 tied for the highest by any player on record in a 75-day span (since 1904).

Altuve在2014年、16年、17年三度獲得打擊王，他在8個符合資格的球季中，有5個球季的打擊率低於3成，其中有些球季只有些微差距，像是去年他的打擊率是.298。而且Altuve已經證明他可以在一段時間保持相當火燙的狀態，這正是在今年完成4成打擊率需要的。他在2017年的60場比賽中打出4成20的打擊率，也追平了1904年以來，在75天之內的最高打擊率。

Cody Bellinger, Dodgers

Cody Bellinger，道奇隊Highest BA in qualified season: .305 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .287
Highest 60-game BA: .370 (2019)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.305（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.287

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.370（2019）

Bellinger stayed at or above the .400 mark longer than anyone last year, through 49 games. It was the longest bid for .400 since Jones made it 73 games in 2008.

Bellinger在去年維持或超過4成打擊率的時間比任何人都長，持續了49場比賽。這是自2008年的Chipper Jones延續73場比賽都保持4成打擊率後，最長的區間。

Bellinger led all qualified hitters last season with a .323 expected batting average, which is based on quality of contact, plus strikeouts. Strikeouts -- or lack thereof -- played a key role in his 2019 success.

Bellinger在去年球季，以.323的預期打擊率，勝過所有符合資格的打者，這項預測是根據擊球質量加上三振數。減少被三振或其他的不利因素，對他打下2019年的漂亮球季很重要。

譯者註：所謂的擊球質量（quality of contact）是指被打者打出的球之強弱程度，又細分為軟弱、中等及強勁球的比例，評估標準包括滯空時間、彈道、落地位置，還有擊出樣態（飛球、滾地球、強勁飛球等）。

Bellinger decreased his strikeout rate in 2019 to 16.4 percent from 23.9 percent in ‘18. That 7.5 percent point decrease was the largest in strikeout rate of any hitter who was qualified in both seasons. Plus, when Bellinger puts the ball in play, his excellent speed turns some groundouts into infield hits.

Bellinger 2019年的三振率從18年的23.9％降到16.4％。這可是7.5個百分點的降幅，是在兩個球季皆符合資格的打者之冠。此外，當Bellinger把球打到場中，他飛快的速度可以將一些滾地球變成安打。

DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

DJ LeMahieu，洋基隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .348 (2016)
Projected 2020 BA: .285
Highest 60-game BA: .379 (2016)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.348（2016）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.285

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.379（2016）

LeMahieu posted his second-highest batting average in 2019, hitting .327 in his first year in the Bronx and quieting those who said his previous success had been purely due to calling Coors Field home. LeMahieu’s expected stats bore out his results, too. His .322 xBA was second among qualified hitters.

LeMahieu在2019年以.327，完成了生涯第二高的打擊率，也是他在洋基的第一年，讓那些認為他之前的優異打擊，純粹歸功於洛磯隊主場的人安靜，也超出LeMahieu原本被預測的打擊率.322，這個預測值是所有打者中次佳的。

LeMahieu strikes out rarely, which will always help in this arena. His 13.7% strikeout rate was top-20 in the Majors, and only one other player in that top 20 had a higher batting average than him (Ketel Marte, .329, 13.7 percent strikeout rate). LeMahieu can also hit pretty much anything. Last year, he hit .319 or better in at-bats ending in fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

LeMahieu很少被三振，一直都能在賽場上給他助益。他的13.7％的三振率排名全聯盟前20名，而且其中只有一位打者有比他更高的打擊率（Ketel Marte，.329，13.7％被三振率）。LeMahieu的攻擊也很全面。面對快速球、變化球、慢球（offspeed pitches），他的打擊率至少都有.319。

Anthony Rendon, Angels

Anthony Rendon，天使隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .319 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .284
Highest 60-game BA: .370 (2019)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.319（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.284

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.370（2019）

Rendon’s 2019 batting average was the highest of his career, but that doesn’t mean we should anticipate he’ll regress. Why? His xBA in 2019 was the exact same number, .319, and he was the only qualified hitter with a batting average equal to his xBA last year.

Rendon 2019年的打擊率是他生涯最高，但這並不代表我們應該預期他會衰退。為什麼？他在2019年的預測打擊率正是他打出的成績，.319，是符合資格的打者中，唯一打出跟預測成績一樣的打者。

It may seem like a statistical anomaly, but it shows that his batting average wasn’t artificially high as a result of luck. That .319 xBA was also third among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger and LeMahieu.

這或許看起來像是統計出現異常，但從結果看他的打擊率並非只是因為人為的幸運而已。.319的預測打擊率只次於Bellinger跟LeMahieu。

Rendon has a great recipe for a high batting average. He doesn’t strike out much, sprays the ball all over the field, and makes a habit of swinging at the right pitches. Joining a lineup with both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani should help Rendon continue to see good pitches.

Rendon的高打擊率背後有各項條件的支持。他的三振不多，能把球打向球場任何地方。而且他有「打對的球」的習慣。他加入了有Mike Trout跟大谷翔平的打線，應該能幫助他持續看得到「好球」。

Mike Trout, Angels

Mike Trout，天使隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .326 (2012)
Projected 2020 BA: .297
Highest 60-game BA: .385 (2013)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.326（2012）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.297

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.385（2013）

No list of players with the potential to achieve greatness is complete without Trout, and the .400 chase is no exception. Trout’s .291 average in 2019 was his second-lowest in a qualified season, but his xBA was .311, tied for fifth-best among qualified hitters. In other words, based on his quality of contact and strikeouts, he should’ve hit for an even higher average.

如果一份有潛力完成偉大紀錄的名單上沒有Trout，就稱不上完整，競爭4成打擊率也不會是例外。Trout 2019年.291的打擊率是他生涯符合資格的球季中次低，但他的預期打擊率原本是.311，名列第5。換句話說，根據他的擊球質量以及三振數，他應該打出更高的打擊率。

A related element that will help him in this quest: Trout doesn’t chase much. His 17.9 percent chase rate last season was the lowest of his career, and ranked fourth-lowest among 146 players to see at least 1,000 out-of-zone pitches in 2019. Don’t hit the bad pitches, make quality contact on the good ones, and you’ve got a great chance at hitting .400 over a sustained period of time.

一個相關的因素可以幫助他達成這項要求（譯者註：高打擊率）：Trout並不追打壞球，他上個球季追打壞球的機率只有17.9％，是他生涯最低，在2019年146名看過1000顆以上好球帶以外的球之打者中，排名第4。不打壞球、對好球有好的擊球質量，你就有很好的機會在一個時間區段中，打出4成打擊率。

Christian Yelich, Brewers

Christian Yelich，釀酒人隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .329 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .304
Highest 60-game BA: .365 (2018)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.329（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.304

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.365（2018）

Yelich has won back-to-back National League batting titles, with a combined .327 average, so it’s easy to expect him to be in the running to reach .400 in 2020. His .313 xBA in 2019 was fourth-highest among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger, LeMahieu and Rendon.

Yelich已連續兩年獲得國聯打擊王，平均打擊率.327，所以容易令人期待他能在2020競爭4成打擊率。他2019年的預測打擊率是.313，是符合資格的打者中第四高，只在Bellinger、LeMahieu及Rendon之後。

Yelich absolutely crushed fastballs (.347) and offspeed pitches (.380) in 2019, showing that pitchers have no good way to get him out. That makes him a serious candidate here.

2019年，Yelich快速球、慢球（offspeed pitches）打得非常好，打擊率分別是3成47、3成80，這顯示投手拿不出好的辦法讓他出局。這讓我們應嚴肅看待他是四割男的候選人。

SLEEPERS

爆冷門組

Luis Arraez, Twins

Luis Arraez，雙城隊

Highest BA: .334 (2019 -- only MLB season, did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .312
Highest 60-game BA: .340 (2019)

單一球季的最高打擊率：.334（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.312

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.340（2019）

Arraez caught a lot of eyes in 2019 for his elite bat-to-ball skills. He had a 93.3% contact rate, the highest among 273 players with at least 300 plate appearances. Arraez also barely struck out -- doing so in just 7.9% of plate appearances, the lowest among that same sample of hitters.

Arraez「把球打進球場」的好功夫，在2019年吸引了很多目光。他有93.3％的擊球率，是有300個打數以上的273個打者中最高的。Arraez也很少被三振，三振率只有7.9％，在有同樣數量樣本數的打者中最低。

譯者註：擊球率（Contact Rate）用來計算打者有多少個打數把球打入場中，無論是安打或出局。計算方式是：（打數-三振數）／打數。

Making a ton of contact and barely ever striking out seems like a good way to hit for a high batting average, and indeed he did over 366 plate appearances. His .312 projected batting average for 2020 is the highest according to Steamer.

把很多球打入場內，而且很少被三振，似乎是完成高打擊率的好方法，而且他確實只以366個打席完成。他2020年的預測打擊率3成12，是Steamer預測最高的打擊率。

Howie Kendrick, Nationals

Howie Kendrick，國民隊

Highest BA: .344 (2019 -- did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .308
Highest 60-game BA: .359 (2007)

單一球季的最高打擊率：.344（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.308

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.359（2007）

Kendrick already inscribed his name into the history books with two dramatic homers in the Nationals’ 2019 World Series run. Imagine if he added “.400 hitter” to his resume just a year later, too? He’s been a part-time player recently, racking up just 370 regular-season plate appearances last year, but if he plays enough, he has the tools to do it.

Kendrick在2019國民隊的世界大賽中擊出兩發戲劇性的全壘打，早已讓他的名字載入史冊。想像一下，如果一年後他也能在履歷中加上一個「四割男」的封號，會如何？Kendrick近年以替補球員身份出賽居多，在去年累計了370個打席，但如果他能打足夠多的比賽，他是有能力辦到的。

The addition of the designated hitter for at least 2020 in the National League should help on the playing-time front, as he’s the team’s primary projected DH. Kendrick had a .336 xBA in '19, highest among players with at least 250 plate appearances.

國聯2020年設置指定打擊，Kendrick也是國民隊規劃指定打擊的主要人選，應該在出賽時間上有助於Kendrick。Kendrick在2019的預測打擊率是.336 ，是至少250個打席的打者中最高。

Alex Verdugo, Red Sox

Alex Verdugo，紅襪隊

Highest BA: .294 (2019 -- did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .307
Highest 60-game BA: .305 (2019)

單一球季的最高打擊率：.294（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.307

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.305（2019）

A .400 chase certainly might make Boston fans feel a bit better about the Mookie Betts trade. Verdugo is up there with some very elite hitters in terms of strikeout rate. With 377 plate appearances of 2019, he struck out just 13% of the time, 19th-lowest among 241 players with at least 350 plate appearances.

能夠加入4成打擊率的競逐，勢必會讓紅襪球迷在Mookie Betts的交易後感到好一些。Verdugo的三振率讓他擠身厲害打者之列。他在2019年的377個打席中，只被三振了13％，是241名至少有350個打席的打者中第19低。

More evidence of his elite contact skills lies in his 90th-percentile, 16% whiff rate last year. As already noted, making consistent contact and avoiding strikeouts are two keys to this quest, so he’s in good shape there.

更多他擁有優異擊球技巧的證據是，他在去年只有16％的揮空率，比90％的打者都優異。正如已經強調過的，能穩定擊球，並且避免三振，是兩個完成高打擊率的關鍵需求，正如Verdugo有好的條件。

ROCKIES

洛磯隊組

Nolan Arenado

Highest BA in qualified season: .315 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .296
Highest 60-game BA: .346 (2019)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.315（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.296

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.346（2019）

Arenado is a superstar, of course, but is just listed here to be with teammates. It’s hard to have a list of candidates to hit .400 without a few players whose home games are at Coors Field, given that a Rockie has won the NL batting title 11 times in the franchise’s 27 seasons, including in six of the past 13.

Arenado毫無疑問是超級巨星，只是為了要跟他的隊友並列而列在這裡。如果要列出可能的四割男很難不列入幾個主場是Coors Field的候選人。Rockie在27年隊史中，就囊括了11次打擊王，包括過去13個球季，拿下了6座。

There’s nowhere better to start than the team’s perennial MVP candidate. Arenado is on the heels of his highest career batting average, in a 2019 season that also included his highest 60-game qualified batting average stretch of .346 from mid-April through late June. He’s never had a strikeout rate higher than 18.1% in a season, and has a career mark of 15.2%.

沒什麼比從球隊長年的MVP候選人開始談起更適合了，Arenado在2019年的打擊率緊追他生涯最佳的打擊率。2019年4月中到6月下旬，他也創下60場區間，且符合資格 的最高打擊率.346。他的球季三振率從未高過18.1％，生涯三振率是15.2％。

Daniel Murphy
Highest BA in qualified season: .347 (2016)
Projected 2020 BA: .288
Highest 60-game BA: .374 (2016)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.347（2016）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.288

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.374（2016）

Murphy is another good choice on the Rockies roster, especially because he’s likely to benefit from the DH addition like Kendrick. That should net him more at-bats, and likely some more consistency as well.

Murphy是洛磯隊打者中另一個非常好的選擇。尤其他可能像Kendrick一樣因指定打擊獲益，可以為他帶來更多打數，也可能讓他的打擊表現更穩定。

He had a down year in 2019, but was among the top 4% of the league or better in xBA in each of the 2016-18 seasons -- and that was before he played his home games at Coors Field. He struck out a bit more in 2019, too, but has historically been a low-strikeout player, which helps immensely.

2019年是他的低潮年，但他在2016-2018年球季的打擊率都能擠身聯盟前4％，或是比預測打擊率好——這還是在他的主場變成Coors Field之前。他在2019年也被三振比較多一點，但他的生涯仍是一個低三振率的打者，對他有極大的助益。

Yonathan Daza
Highest BA: .206 (2019 -- only MLB season, did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .301
Highest 60-game BA: has not played 60 career MLB games

單一球季的最高打擊率：.206（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.301

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：生涯還沒有打超過60場的MLB球季

This is a huge wild card -- but bear with the process here. Daza is the Rockies’ 11th-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline and had a 44-game stint in the Majors in 2019. But his chances at .400, which are relatively high according to Tango’s research, rest on this tenet: A player who hits .400 may be one who plays just enough to reach the 186-PA minimum to qualify for the batting title this year. In 1980, George Brett hit .390 -- one of the closest qualified bids at .400 since Williams’ feat.

這是一個大膽的黑馬預測——但請耐著性子看完分析。根據MLB Pipeline，Daza是洛磯隊排名第十一的潛力新秀，他在2019年只打了44場比賽。但根據MLB.com資深數據工程師Tom Tango的研究，Daza打出4成打擊率的機會相對高。是根據這個原則：今年成為四割男的球員，只要至少打夠186個打席，並能競逐打擊王寶座。1980年，George Brett的打擊率.390，是自Ted Williams之後，以最接近符合資格打席，且逼近4成的表現之一。

He did so in a year where he amassed 515 plate appearances after being limited with an ankle injury. That’s plenty of PAs, but just 13 more than the necessary 502 in a 162-game season. Clearly, Daza is not Brett, but he does have a .318 career average in the Minors, including .364 in 89 Triple-A games last year.

Brett在那年因為腳踝傷勢，打席數只有515。但已經足夠，比162場例行賽需要符合資格的502打席數多了13次。當然Daza非比Brett，但他在小聯盟有.318的平均打擊率，包括去年在3A打出.364。

Projections give Daza a high batting average this season, in a limited sample. If we extrapolate that sample to just barely making the qualified cutoff, he has fewer chances to lower that batting average, and therefore a decent chance to remain at a necessarily high level for the whole year.

在有限的樣本數內，預測給出Daza這個球季有高的打擊率。如果我們藉此推斷這樣的樣本數可以剛好達到符合資格的邊緣，他打出比預測低的打擊率的機率是較低的，所以他有較好的機會必然在今年保持較高的打擊水平。