中英對照版》2020球季會有的8種不同

8 ways the 2020 season will be ... different

2020球季會有的8種不同

原文連結：https://www.mlb.com/news/ways-the-2020-season-will-be-different

原文作者／Mike Petriello

What is the 2020 Major League Baseball season going to look like? Well, nothing you've ever seen before, obviously. The season will only be 60 games long. It will be played in the midst of a global pandemic. The NL will have the DH. Extra inning rules are changed. Roster limits are changed. Some high-risk players may choose not to participate. 

2020年的美國職棒大聯盟球季看起來會像什麼樣子？這個嘛，顯然將是你從所未見的。球季只有60場比賽。而且在全球疾病大流行中開打。國聯將開始設有DH。延長賽的規則將改變。限制球隊陣容的規則也有調整。一些高風險的球員可以選擇不要參賽。

We can't treat it like a normal season, because it isn't. While we keep one eye on the field, we keep another on the global health situation. You can't have one without the other.

我們不能像看待正常球季一樣看待本季，因為他完全不同。 當我們關注球場的事務，我們也要關心全球的疫情狀況。你不能顧此失彼。

That all means that this season is going to be ever so weird, and not all of that weirdness is going to be good. But a lot of it will be, or at least might be. Let's touch on eight of the most interesting and unusual things you'll see this year.

這意謂著這個球季將會很奇特，而且不會全是好事。但其中一些會是好事...或至少可能是。我們來討論今年8件最有趣而且罕見的事情。

1) The sacrifice bunt is going to disappear.

犧牲觸擊將會消失

This one is so interesting to us that we went and wrote a whole separate article on it, so please go take a look at that. But here's the short version, anyway: In 2019, there were only 776 sacrifice bunts, or .16 per team game. That's the lowest in history, and new lows have been set regularly each year for many years now. You don't need us to tell you that sac bunts are not cool.

這件事對我們而言，實在太有趣，所以我們單獨為此寫了一篇文章，可以去看看。這裡則是簡短的版本，總而言之，2019年有776個犧牲觸擊，也就是每場比賽有0.16個犧牲觸擊。是有史以來最低的，數年前開始，每年的數字就持續創下新低。不用我們來告訴你犧牲觸擊實在不ok。

But, as you might expect, most of them come from pitchers -- 56%, to be exact, in 2019. Guess who won't be hitting in 2020? Pitchers. Not in National League games, not in games where AL clubs are visiting NL parks, not anywhere, ever. (They can still pinch-hit, to be sure, but that's unlikely.) So long, more than half of an already record-low number of sac bunts.

但是，正如你所預期的，很多犧牲觸擊來自於投手——更準確來說，這個數字在2019年占了56％。猜猜看誰不會在2020年打擊？投手。不在國聯比賽打擊了，也不在美聯球隊作客國聯主場時打擊，通通不再存在了。（準確來說，他們還是可以代打，但不太可能）每年創新低、一半以上的犧牲打擊，再見了。

As we got into in detail in the fuller piece, it's not just that pitchers can't hit, even though they can't. They can't really bunt, either, contrary to the popular belief that a bunt attempt is a guaranteed win. Remember, you might be envisioning that perfectly placed bunt to move the runner along, but what's really going to be gone is a lot of, well, this：

如果我們討論得更細一點，把故事講得更完整，投手不只是打不好而已，儘管他們本來就不能再打了。他們也不應該再觸點了，與普遍認為觸點是有利的保證相反。記住，你想像中投手觸點可以推進打者，但事實上很多時候會形成，嗯，這個：（譯者註：原文是投手觸點成飛球遭接殺，造成雙殺的影片）

2) Some starter is going to go an entire season undefeated -- and others, winless.

一些先發投手將會整季所向披靡——其他會一勝難求

Over a 60-game season, with a traditional five-man rotation, you'd expect a starter to receive 12 starts. Obviously, nothing about this is going to be traditional, and maybe you'll see aces squeeze in some more on short rest later on, but let's go with a dozen for now. What can happen over 12 starts?

60場比賽的球季，加上傳統的5人輪值，你會期待先發投手有12場先發機會。但顯而易見的，一切不會再如傳統的印象，隨著球季進展，你可能會看到王牌投手縮短休息時間，擠出更多先發，但先以12場計算就好，12場先發會發生什麼事情。

That's easy enough to look up, so let's check back on 2019, and see how many starters made it a dozen consecutive starts without a loss, and ... oh, wow. It happened 14 times, if we exclude Ryne Stanek's opener situation. Gerrit Cole lost on May 22 and then not again for the rest of the season, a streak of 22 starts. 

這很好預測，我們來看看2019年球季，有多少先發投手連續12場先發後都尚未吞敗，答案是...哇喔！發生了14次，如果我們排除Ryne Stanek開幕戰的情況。Gerrit Cole在5月22日吞敗，剩下整個球季，連續22場比賽沒有再吞敗過。

Stars like Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, and Mike Clevinger had streaks of 12 or more games without a loss. Not-stars like Wade Miley and Zach Davies did, too. This is going to happen.

一些明星球員像Aaron Nola、Max Scherzer、Mike Clevinger都有連續12場或更多的先發場次沒有吞敗。一些非明星球員像是Wade Miley、Zach Davies也做到了。這本來就會發生。

And what about the other side? What about a dozen starts without a single win? That happened 17 non-opener times, and again, it's a mix of stars (Jack Flaherty and Yu Darvish) and non-stars (David Hess and Peter Lambert). This is going to happen, too. 

那對另外一面而言呢？像是12場比賽贏不下一場？不從開幕戰開始算起，這在2019年球季發生了17次，而且還有明星球員參與其中（Jack Flaherty及達比修有），還有非明星球員（David Hess及Peter Lambert）。這也本來就會發生。

Some poor starting pitcher is going to enter his 12th and final start of the season on Sept. 25 or so with the big goose egg next to his name. Count on it.

一些表現不好的先發投手將會在9月25日迎來他的第12場先發，同時擔心他的名字旁邊會被掛上一顆大鴨蛋。等著看吧。

3) The strikeout rate will go down, finally. Probably. By a little.

終於，三振率會下降。應該吧...下降一點點  

We set a new record for strikeout rate pretty much every year -- 23% in 2019, up from 18% in 2009, and 16.4% in 1999 -- and the reasons why are clear: Pitchers are nastier than ever, velocity keeps going up, and no one gets to face a tired starter 130 pitches deep for the fourth time through a lineup anymore. The only way this changes is if life gets harder on pitchers.

幾乎每年的三振率都在創新高——2019是23％。2009年是18％，1999年是16.4％。原因很簡單：投手比以前更加厲害了，包括速度增快，而且不會再有打者可以對陣已經投了130球，而且已經面對四輪打線的疲累投手了。如果這要改變的話，除非投手的處境變得更艱苦。

Well, it's about to, in the NL, anyway. No longer will NL pitchers get to the bottom of the lineup and get the breather offered by facing the opposing starter. You already know that pitchers strike out more than regular hitters do, but let's just list this out to be sure.

嗯，無論如何，這在國聯這就要發生了。國聯投手不再可以趁對上最後一棒，也就是敵方先發投手時喘息一下。你應該本來就知道投手被三振比一般打者更多，但我們還是列出數字確認一下。

2019, pitchers hitting: 43.5% K rate
2019, non-pitchers hitting: 22.4% K rate

2019年投手打擊：43.5％被三振率。

2019年非投手打擊：22.4％被三振率。

Another way to say that is that pitchers took 2.7% of all plate appearances, but were responsible for 5.2% of all strikeouts. Obviously, there's more to strikeouts than just this; we don't know how effective pitchers on the mound will be after this incredibly long offseason. But just in the terms of "removing the worst batters from the equation," we might not see quite as many whiffs.

換句話說，投手占所有打席的2.7％，但卻吞下了5.2％的三振數。顯而易見的，比三振更難以預測的是，我們不知道投手經過超級長的休賽季後， 在投手丘上的宰制力會變得如何。但單單根據「把最差的打者從方程式中移除後」，我們不會再看到一樣多的揮棒落空。

Speaking of which ...

說到這個嘛

4) The 8th hitter in the NL is no longer going to get pitched around.

國聯的第8棒將不會再被投得開一點

"Pitch around, or intentionally walk, the eighth hitter to get to the pitcher batting," goes the age-old wisdom.

「無論是投得開一點或是故意四壞，第8棒的打者 打完，就輪到投手打擊 。」這是古老的智慧。

It's arguable that this is actually the right strategy, because by doing this, you cost yourself the chance of getting the eighth hitter out and having the pitcher lead off the next inning, but it's clear this has been a go-to move forever. Just look at the walk rate of the top eight spots in the lineup, split by league, over the last three years. The largest gap is at the eight spot.

這是否是好的策略還有爭論，因為這樣做，你會失去解決第8棒打者，而且讓打者下一局是第一名打者的機會，但顯然這將從此消失。看看過去3年，依美聯、國聯不同，前8棒的被保送率吧，最大的差別就是第8棒。（譯者註：美聯7.5％，國聯9.1％）

5) So long, pinch-hitters.

永別了，代打們

Okay, not entirely. There are still going to be platoon matchups, or a star hitter taking the day off coming in to take a high-leverage late-inning swing. You'll still hear the PA announcer intone, "Now hitting for the shortstop, number 24," etc. But you know who is most often being hit for in the first place, right? Pitchers. Obviously.

好啦，不是完全告別啦。總會有相同守備位置人員的替換，或者是明星球員休息一天，然後在比賽後半段再代打扮演關鍵一擊。你還是會聽到播音員誦讀：「現在由24號代打游擊手」之類的。但你知道誰總是被代打的第一人選吧。當然，就是投手。

Over the last three seasons in games with the DH available, there were 3,676 pinch-hit appearances. Over the last three seasons in games without the DH available, there were 13,027 pinch-hit appearances. So that's about three-and-a-half times as many pinch-hitters in games without the DH, and we don't need to tell you where those are coming from, do we?

過去3季，設有DH的比賽，出現3676次代打；未設有DH，則有13027次代打。沒DH的代打次數是有DH的3倍半，不必我們來告訴你多出來的數字從何而來吧。

We do not. Let's do it anyway. Over the last three years, in games without the DH, the pitcher's spot was hit for 10,687 times ... or about 82% of all pinch-hitting appearances in those games, and 64% of all pinch-hitting appearances in all games. 

我們不會。但還是談一下吧。過去3年，未設置DH的比賽，投手被代打了10687次，或是占了未設DH比賽的代打次數82％，占所有代打次數的64％。

Those are gone now, and that's maybe bad news for someone like San Diego's Greg Garcia, who by far has the most pinch-hitting appearances since 2017, with 164. (On the other hand: maybe he can get some DH time now.)

這些將不復存在了，這對教士隊的Greg Garcia這種人可能是壞消息，因為他是自2017年以來代打次數最多的打者，有164個打席。（另一方面來講：現在他或許有時候可以打DH）

And if there are fewer pitchers hitting in the NL, you know what might else happen?

而如果國聯投手打擊變少了，你知道會發生什麼事嗎？

6) The NL could be the higher-scoring league for the first time in nearly five decades.

國聯可能迎來睽違近50年來，第一次為得分較高的聯盟 。

Guess when the last time the NL outscored the AL? Go ahead, guess. If it was "not really at all since the AL got the DH" you'd be right, or close to it. (The AL got the DH in 1973; the NL slightly outscored them in '74, but not once in the 45 seasons since.)

猜猜看上一次國聯得分比美聯多已經是甚麼時候的事情了？再往前猜一點。如果答案是「自從美聯設有DH以後根本沒贏過」那你的答案是對的，或是接近了。（美聯在1973開始設置DH；國聯在1974年還能稍微得多一點分數，但此後45個球季就再也沒贏過了。）

That is almost entirely due to the fact that pitchers were taking up so many low-value plate appearances in the NL, which has been enough to overcome the fact that the NL has Coors Field, which is almost always the highest-scoring ballpark.

這幾乎可以歸因於投手在國聯實在製造了太多低價值的打席，甚至足以抵銷了國聯有Coors Field的事實，Coors幾乎一直是得分最多的球場。

Could that change in 2020? We took a spin over to the FanGraphs projected standings, which have been updated to account for the 60-game season and the NL DH, and guess what they say: The AL is projected for 4.82 runs/game. The NL? 4.91. It could happen.

這在2020會改變嗎？我們簡單地看一下數據網站FanGraphs預測的球隊排名，這項排名已經根據例賽60場、國聯設有DH來調整，猜猜看它們怎麼說：預測美聯每場比賽得4.82分。國聯呢？4.91。這真的可能會發生。

7) Home field advantage may or may not be an advantage.

主場優勢可能仍是，或可能不再是優勢

This almost never changes. Home teams won 52.9% of their games in 2019, and the average dating all the way back to integration in 1947 is 53.8%. There has never once been a season where the home team didn't win more than half the games, and you have to go all the way back to 1917's .506 home winning percentage to come even close. You'll get small movement around that 53% number, but it's safe to say that the home team has a slight 53/47 advantage in baseball.

這幾乎從未改變。主場球隊在2019年贏下了52.9％的比賽，如果將這個數字回溯至1947年黑白融合至今的整體平均也是53.8％。 還從未發生主場球隊沒有贏超過一半比賽的球季，你需要回溯至1917年.506的勝率，才找到比較接近的情況。通常各個球季都是在53％左右，如果棒球的主場球隊的有53對47的優勢是可靠的。

But why? The advantage of batting last certainly plays a role, and that won't change this year. But ... is it that, or the comfort of one's own bed, or not having had to travel into town the night before, or the roar of the crowd in your favor, or the chances of getting more favorable calls?

但從何而來呢？後攻當然扮演關鍵的角色，今年這個不會改變啦。但...會不會也是因為球員可以睡自家的床，或者不用舟車勞頓提前一晚到客場城市，或者可以有主場球迷的喊聲加持，或是可以得到更多利於己方的判決？

The correct answer is probably "some combination of all of the above," but in a world where fans won't be in attendance for some or all of the season -- and almost certainly won't be packed into a full house at any point -- we're about to find out how much this matters.

正確答案是「綜合以上原因」，但在球迷可能會持續一段時間或整季不在觀眾席的世界， 也幾乎可以確定在任何時間點都不會有滿場，我們就能驗證這到底有多大的影響。

There's no one right answer to this, of course. But there have been some studies done to try to figure it out. One, for example, noted that the home team got slightly more full count calls going their way. A 2016 FanGraphs analysis suggested that such an unconscious effect could account for "roughly 70 percent of home-field advantage."

當然，這個問題沒有一個絕對適合的答案。但已經有一些研究嘗試找出原因。其中之一，舉例而言，點出主場球隊稍微比較容易得到有利於他們的滿球數。一份2016年的FanGraphs分析指出，這種不經意的影響，大概占主場優勢70％的成因。

Without fans, does that still hold true? For the first time, we'll have an opportunity to see.

如果沒有球迷，上述發現還成立嗎？我們將有史上頭一遭的機會來檢視。

8) You might see a true rarity: A player skipping the Minors entirely.

你可能會見證非常罕見的事情：有球員完全跳過小聯盟

This has only happened 21 times, and not at all in more than a decade, since Mike Leake went right from Arizona State to the Reds back in 2010. Even that came with a caveat, because while Leake never pitched in the Minors after being drafted in '09, he did pitch in the Arizona Fall League first.

這在史上只有發生過21次，從Mike Leake 2010年從亞利桑那州直升紅人隊（譯者註：Leake 2009年短暫打過亞利桑那秋季聯盟），已經超過10年完全沒有發生過。Leake的事情還被發出警告過，因為Leake在09年被選秀選中後，沒有在小聯盟投過，他只有先在亞利桑那秋季聯盟投球。

Then again, if we're talking about caveats, the fact there potentially might not be Minor League baseball this year due to the pandemic certainly qualifies. That being the case, several teams added top prospects and 2020 Draft picks to their 60-man player pools, in hopes of at least getting them some practice reps. But it's not out of the question that in the right situation, one or more of them make it up to the big team.

如果我們談論的是警告，但事實上今年小聯盟因為疫情大爆發幾乎沒有比賽。如此一來，很多球隊把他們的頂級新秀以及2020年的選到的球員加入他們的60人名單，希望至少讓他們有一些替代的磨練機會。但還是沒辦法排除在特定情況，其中有一或多位球員直接上到大聯盟。

Who? It won't be a high schooler. It's probably more likely to be a pitcher than a hitter, because you can always make room for another arm. Teams out of contention may be less likely to bother. Our guess: Cubs lefty Burl Carraway, described as "a fast mover" by Cubs vice president of scouting Dan Kantrovitz, because you generally don't draft a reliever that high unless you think he really can help you pretty soon -- and the Cubs expect to be in the race.

至於是誰呢？不會是高中生。也比較有可能是投手而非打者，因為你總是可以為投手騰出名單。一些競爭力較弱的球隊可能沒有這方面的困擾。我們猜測：小熊隊的左投Burl Carraway，被小熊隊球探部門副總監Dan Kantrovitz形容是「快速的移動者」 ，因為你通常不會在那麼高的順位，選一個後援投手，除非你認為他很快就可以幫到球隊，而小熊隊希望保有競爭力。

中英對照版》大聯盟史上最不可能發生的初登板

This is the most unlikely debut in baseball history

大聯盟史上最不可能發生的初登板

The only player with three hits and a 1.000 batting average

唯一打出3支安打保持完美打擊率的球員

作者／Michael Clair

原文連結：https://www.mlb.com/news/john-paciorek-s-perfect-baseball-career

This isn’t how things are supposed to go. When young stars come up to the Major Leagues, and they show off a sweet swing, a patient batting eye and a solid glove all at once, it's easy to start dreaming of the future.

世道不應該是這樣運作的。年輕的球星升上大聯盟，並且同時展現令人著迷的揮擊、耐心地選球，以及堅實的守備，容易讓人對他們的未來充滿憧憬。

That wasn’t the case for John Paciorek, who had perhaps the greatest -- and shortest -- career in Major League history.

但John Paciorek的故事不是照這樣的套路發展的，他或許擁有大聯盟史上最佳又最短的棒球生涯。

On the final day of the 1963 season, the then-Houston Colt 45s gave the 18-year-old Paciorek his big league debut against the Mets.

1963年球季的最後一天，當時的「休士頓柯特點45手槍隊」（Houston Colt 45s）對戰大都會，讓18歲的John Paciorek得以實現大聯盟初登板。

It was an unexpected move. Paciorek was in Houston to have his back examined and was playing in intrasquad rookie games while he was there. He hadn’t been particularly good that year in the Minors, either -- hitting only .219 with nine home runs in 78 games at Modesto.

這項調度是出人意外的。Paciorek正在休士頓檢查他的背部， 正在打新人對抗賽（intrasquad rookie games）。那年他在小聯盟的表現也並不是特別好。在加州Modesto市的78場比賽中，只有.219的打擊率，打出9支全壘打。

Still, the team was high on the bonus baby. Since he was already in town and Houston was locked into ninth place, the team asked him if he wanted to play.

儘管如此，柯特點45手槍隊還是對這個剛簽下的業餘選手抱以期待。而且既然他已經到了休士頓，而且柯特點45手槍隊已確定排名第9（譯者註：倒數第二），所以就決定讓Paciorek試試身手。

（譯者註：此處業餘選手的原文是bonus baby。大聯盟球隊1947到1965年有跟業餘選手簽約的制度，簽約金超過4000美金者，稱作bonus baby）

"I said, ‘Uh, yes, I would, there’s no doubt about that,’” Paciorek told MLB Network. “I didn’t care how bad my back was hurting at the time, I wanted to play.”

「我回答：『喔，好啊，我願意。沒有任何遲疑』」Paciorek跟MLB電視台（MLB Network）說：「我完全不在意我當時的背傷有多嚴重，我就是想打球。」

He would go on to have one of the finest debuts possible.

他即將完成史上最佳的初登板之一。

Batting seventh in a lineup almost exclusively made up of rookies, including Joe Morgan and Rusty Staub, Paciorek stepped to the plate in the bottom of the second. He walked against the Mets’ Larry Bearnarth, and came around to score on John Bateman’s triple.

他被安排在幾乎是為菜鳥量身打造的第7棒，包括Joe Morgan和Rusty Staub都打過（譯者註：兩人菜鳥年都在休士頓，前者是名人堂球員），Paciorek在2局下半上場打擊，被大都會隊的Larry Bearnarth保送，並且被John Bateman的三壘安打送回得分。

He came up again in the fourth and laced a two-run single, scoring on Pete Runnels’ sacrifice fly.

他在4局再次上場，打出帶有兩分打點的一壘安打，並且因Pete Runnels的高飛犧牲打得分。

He hit an RBI single the next inning, and scored on Bob Lillis’ hit.

他又在下一局擊出帶有一分打點的一壘安打，而且被Bob Lillis的安打送回本壘。

He followed that with a walk in the sixth and one more base hit in the eighth inning -- getting a standing ovation from the crowd in his final at-bat.

接著他在6局被保送，又在8局擊出另外一支一壘安打——他還在最後一個打數得到觀眾的起立鼓掌。

''It's funny, but I can't remember a whole lot about the game,'' Paciorek told the New York Times in 1983. ''It was around 120 degrees in Colt Stadium for a Sunday afternoon game, I remember that. Paul Richards was the general manager and Harry Craft was the manager, but I don't remember who asked me to play.”

「一切很有趣，但我記不得那場比賽的所有細節。」Paciorek在1983年告訴《紐約時報》：「我記得那場星期天下午，在Colt Stadium的比賽，氣溫大概有華氏120那麼高吧（譯者註：相當於攝氏48度，Paciorek在開玩笑），Paul Richards是總經理，Harry Craf是總教練，但我不記得是誰問我要不要上場的。」

All in all, Paciorek’s debut was a dream come true: 3-for-3, two walks, three RBIs and four runs scored.

總而言之，Paciorek的初登板簡直是夢想成真，3支3，兩個保送，3分打點，還得了4分。

To put that in perspective, 22 other players have picked up at least three hits and never made an out in their debut. But every other player on that list also played in more big league games, and watched their batting averages drop.

與之相較的是，還有其他22名球員在初登板至少打出3支安打，而且從未出局。但這些在名單上的球員也都打更多的大聯盟比賽，只能看著他們的打擊率往下掉。

Some, like Mike Piazza, even went on to have Hall of Fame careers -- which may have been the future that Houston fans were dreaming up for for Paciorek.

名單中的一些球員，像是Mike Piazza甚至打出了前進名人堂的生涯，休士頓的球迷本來也夢想Paciorek假以時日能達成那樣的成就。

Hopes were high for the young outfielder when he reported to camp the next spring, and there was talk that he could be the team's starting center fielder.

大家對這位年輕外野手的期待很高，當時他被報導在隔年春天繼續跟著球隊，而且也有人討論他可以勝任球隊的先發中外野手。

That only intensified when Paciorek -- in his first exhibition game of the new season -- faced the Mets (again) and lit them up (again). This time, Paciorek laced a bases-loaded triple to drive in three runs in the Houston victory.

而且這樣的願望越來越強烈，因為新球季Paciorek在他的第一場表演賽，對上大都會隊（再一次），並且修理他們（再一次）。這一次，Paciorek在滿壘扛出一支三壘安打，打進三分打點，最後休士頓取得勝利。

But the back issues hadn’t gone away. If anything, they were worse.

但Paciorek的背傷還是沒有解決，其實是這樣，反而更糟了。

“The following Spring Training, they played me every game,” Paciorek said. “I was supposed to be the starting center fielder. I could run all right and I swung the bat pretty good, but every time I bent over, my back just killed me. I didn’t really tell anyone about it because I was a naive 18-year-old.”

「接下來的春訓，他們讓我每場都出賽。」Paciorek說：「我當時應該要擔任先發中外野手的。我還跑得動，而且打擊狀況還不錯。但每次我彎下身的時候，我的背傷讓我快死了。我沒有告訴任何人這件事，因為我是天真的18歲少年。」

After a rough Spring, Paciorek was sent down and, after hitting just .135 in the Minors, finally admitted to the pain he was experiencing. That led to spinal fusion surgery, and he missed all of the 1965 season.

因為春訓打得不好，Paciorek被下放，而且在小聯盟只有.135的打擊率，他才坦承他正遭受的傷痛。Paciorek接受了脊柱融合手術，錯過了整個1965年球季。

The surgery helped his back, but it came with consequences.

手術幫助了他的背部，但有後遺症。

“I'd go to the ballpark hours before anybody else just to get loose,” Paciorek said. “But I kept hurting my arm and pulling my hamstrings because my back was so tight.

「我需要比別人提前幾個小時到球場，就為了伸展放鬆，」Paciorek表示，「但我還是一直傷到我的手臂以及拉傷我的腿筋，因為我的背實在太緊了。」

''I did everything I could to get back. I'd back up every play. I even had putouts at third base and second base because I hustled. The fans would see this jerk running 100 miles per hour while other players were lollygagging across the field, but I had to do it. I had such a bad arm, I had to charge everything.''

「為了回到球場，我盡了一切努力。我每天都準備好自己，我甚至在二壘及三壘前出局，因為我太積極進壘。球迷看到的是一個跑時速100英哩的混球，而其他球員只是漫步通過球場，但我必須這樣做。我的手臂是如此糟糕，我必須付出我的一切。」

It wasn't enough. The maladies kept Paciorek from ever playing in 100 games, and when he was on the field, he didn't hit much.

但這樣的努力還是不夠的。傷病讓Paciorek缺席了100場比賽，他上場時也打得不好。

He stuck it out in the Minors until 1968, but only reached Double-A and never played in the Majors again.

直到1968年他都卡在小聯盟，而且只升到2A，也再也沒打過大聯盟。

So, with the back healed up well enough for real life, but not for baseball, he went on to become a PE teacher in San Gabriel, Calif. It also meant that he could only watch as his brothers, Tom (18-year big league career) and Jim (one year with the Brewers in 1987), put together much longer careers.

所以，當他的背傷痊癒得差不多了——對他的場外人生，而非棒球生涯。他在加州San Gabriel市擔任體育老師。這也意謂他只能看著他的弟弟們——Tom Paciorek（在大聯盟打了18年）、Jim Paciorek（1987年待過釀酒人）加起來比他長多了的大聯盟生涯。

While that was disappointing, it did have one upside: Paciorek kept the record for the most hits with a perfect batting average.

雖然這很讓人失望，但也有焉知非福的一面：Paciorek是以最多安打保持完美打擊率的紀錄持有人。

“It’s kind of a dubious honor,” Paciorek told Stephen Wagner in the book "Perfect: The Rise and Fall of John Paciorek, Baseball’s Greatest One-Game Wonder." “But I guess I’m immortalized. I did something no one else has ever done."

「這個紀錄有點不真實。」Paciorek告訴《完美：John Paciorek的崛起和衰落，棒球史上最佳的一場懸念》（Perfect: The Rise and Fall of John Paciorek, Baseball’s Greatest One-Game Wonder）作者Stephen Wagner：「但我想我將永垂不朽，我完成了別人從未做到的事。」

中英對照版》12位可能成為4割男的候選人

標題：

12 candidates to hit .400 this season

12位可能成為4割男的候選人

原文連結：https://www.mlb.com/news/candidates-to-hit-400-2020-mlb-season

The 2020 season will consist of 102 fewer games than usual, which opens up a whole new world of possibilities. While counting-stat records will be safe for the time being, certain rate-stat marks will be within reach.

2020球季將會比平常少102場，這打開了一個新世界，充滿了許多可能性。雖然以總量計的數據統計尚屬安全，但一些以比率計的數據，就比較可能被破。

No player has hit .400 in a qualified season since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941. But there have been seven players since then to have at least a .400 average at the 60-game mark. 

自從Ted Williams1941年在符合資格的球季，創下.406的打擊率後，沒有再出現四割男過。但此後，至少有7名球員在球季進行60場比賽後，仍保持至少4成打擊率。

.400 BA through 60 team games, qualified hitters since 1942

自1942年以來，球季進行60場比賽時，符合資格、打擊率4成以上的打者有：
Chipper Jones, 2008: .409
Tony Gwynn, 1997: .403
Larry Walker, 1997: .417
Paul O’Neill, 1994: .417
Rod Carew, 1983: .411
Hank Aaron, 1959: .402
Ted Williams, 1948: .412

譯者註：這邊所謂符合資格（qualified），是指大聯盟規定打者的打席需符合平均每場例行賽3.1個打席，162場的話就是502個打席，才能競爭打擊王。60場比賽的話，就是186個打席。

No active player has done it, but there are four active players to hit .400 over any span of 60 team-games within a single season, as a qualified hitter.

上述名單不包括任何現役球員，但有4名現役球員，在單一球季中任何長達60場比賽的區間， 在符合資格下，擊出超過4成的打擊率。

Those hitters are José Altuve, in both 2016 and ‘17, Joey Votto in ‘16, Andrew McCutchen in ‘12 and Albert Pujols in ‘03. Free agent Hanley Ramírez, who has yet to officially retire, also did so, in ‘09.

這些打者是José Altuve，分別在2016、2017年達成上述成就；Joey Votto在16年、Andrew McCutchen在12年，以及Albert Pujols在03年都有達成。自由球員Hanley Ramírez還沒有正式退休，也有在09年達成此一成就。

Could one of them bat .400 in this abbreviated 60-game schedule? Could another player achieve the feat? Doing so this year could not be considered on par with Williams’ 1941, but it would be a fun novelty.

他們其中之一可以在這個縮水的球季打出4成打擊率嗎？或有其他的球員可以做到嗎？即便在今年做到，並無法跟1941年的Ted Williams等量齊觀，但仍新奇有趣。

Even so, the numbers say not to expect it. According to research by MLB.com senior data architect Tom Tango, the likelihood that any qualified player would hit .400 this season is 3%. But that’s still far higher than the chances in a regular, 162-game season, which are 0.012%. 

不過，數據呈現出不必有過多的期待，根據MLB.com的資深數據工程師Tom Tango指出，這個球季符合資格的打者，擊出超過4成打擊率的機率是3％。但已經遠高於162場例賽的機率，那就是0.012%。（譯者註：等於12/10萬，也就是每25000名球員才會出現3位）

While the odds are stacked against it, it’s still intriguing to imagine a serious pursuit stretching late into September. Here’s a look at 12 candidates to hit .400 this season.

雖然機率顯示挑戰重重， 但想像將有球員在9月時認真地追逐此項紀錄仍相當吸引人。以下是12個可能成為四割男的候選人。

SUPERSTARS

超級巨星組：

José Altuve, Astros

José Altuve，太空人隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .346 (2017)
Projected 2020 BA per Steamer: .296
Highest BA in qualified 60-games-played stretch: .420 (2017)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.346（2017）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.296

以60場比賽為計算區間，且打席數符合資格的最高打擊率：.420（2017）

Altuve has won three batting titles in his career, in 2014, ‘16 and ‘17. He’s hit above .300 in five of his eight qualified seasons, and one of the near misses was last season, when he hit .298. And Altuve has demonstrated he is capable of the sort of extended hot streak needed here. His .420 average over a span of 60 games in 2017 tied for the highest by any player on record in a 75-day span (since 1904).

Altuve在2014年、16年、17年三度獲得打擊王，他在8個符合資格的球季中，有5個球季的打擊率低於3成，其中有些球季只有些微差距，像是去年他的打擊率是.298。而且Altuve已經證明他可以在一段時間保持相當火燙的狀態，這正是在今年完成4成打擊率需要的。他在2017年的60場比賽中打出4成20的打擊率，也追平了1904年以來，在75天之內的最高打擊率。

Cody Bellinger, Dodgers

Cody Bellinger，道奇隊Highest BA in qualified season: .305 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .287
Highest 60-game BA: .370 (2019)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.305（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.287

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.370（2019）

Bellinger stayed at or above the .400 mark longer than anyone last year, through 49 games. It was the longest bid for .400 since Jones made it 73 games in 2008.

Bellinger在去年維持或超過4成打擊率的時間比任何人都長，持續了49場比賽。這是自2008年的Chipper Jones延續73場比賽都保持4成打擊率後，最長的區間。

Bellinger led all qualified hitters last season with a .323 expected batting average, which is based on quality of contact, plus strikeouts. Strikeouts -- or lack thereof -- played a key role in his 2019 success.

Bellinger在去年球季，以.323的預期打擊率，勝過所有符合資格的打者，這項預測是根據擊球質量加上三振數。減少被三振或其他的不利因素，對他打下2019年的漂亮球季很重要。

譯者註：所謂的擊球質量（quality of contact）是指被打者打出的球之強弱程度，又細分為軟弱、中等及強勁球的比例，評估標準包括滯空時間、彈道、落地位置，還有擊出樣態（飛球、滾地球、強勁飛球等）。

Bellinger decreased his strikeout rate in 2019 to 16.4 percent from 23.9 percent in ‘18. That 7.5 percent point decrease was the largest in strikeout rate of any hitter who was qualified in both seasons. Plus, when Bellinger puts the ball in play, his excellent speed turns some groundouts into infield hits.

Bellinger 2019年的三振率從18年的23.9％降到16.4％。這可是7.5個百分點的降幅，是在兩個球季皆符合資格的打者之冠。此外，當Bellinger把球打到場中，他飛快的速度可以將一些滾地球變成安打。

DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

DJ LeMahieu，洋基隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .348 (2016)
Projected 2020 BA: .285
Highest 60-game BA: .379 (2016)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.348（2016）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.285

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.379（2016）

LeMahieu posted his second-highest batting average in 2019, hitting .327 in his first year in the Bronx and quieting those who said his previous success had been purely due to calling Coors Field home. LeMahieu’s expected stats bore out his results, too. His .322 xBA was second among qualified hitters.

LeMahieu在2019年以.327，完成了生涯第二高的打擊率，也是他在洋基的第一年，讓那些認為他之前的優異打擊，純粹歸功於洛磯隊主場的人安靜，也超出LeMahieu原本被預測的打擊率.322，這個預測值是所有打者中次佳的。

LeMahieu strikes out rarely, which will always help in this arena. His 13.7% strikeout rate was top-20 in the Majors, and only one other player in that top 20 had a higher batting average than him (Ketel Marte, .329, 13.7 percent strikeout rate). LeMahieu can also hit pretty much anything. Last year, he hit .319 or better in at-bats ending in fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

LeMahieu很少被三振，一直都能在賽場上給他助益。他的13.7％的三振率排名全聯盟前20名，而且其中只有一位打者有比他更高的打擊率（Ketel Marte，.329，13.7％被三振率）。LeMahieu的攻擊也很全面。面對快速球、變化球、慢球（offspeed pitches），他的打擊率至少都有.319。

Anthony Rendon, Angels

Anthony Rendon，天使隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .319 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .284
Highest 60-game BA: .370 (2019)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.319（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.284

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.370（2019）

Rendon’s 2019 batting average was the highest of his career, but that doesn’t mean we should anticipate he’ll regress. Why? His xBA in 2019 was the exact same number, .319, and he was the only qualified hitter with a batting average equal to his xBA last year.

Rendon 2019年的打擊率是他生涯最高，但這並不代表我們應該預期他會衰退。為什麼？他在2019年的預測打擊率正是他打出的成績，.319，是符合資格的打者中，唯一打出跟預測成績一樣的打者。

It may seem like a statistical anomaly, but it shows that his batting average wasn’t artificially high as a result of luck. That .319 xBA was also third among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger and LeMahieu.

這或許看起來像是統計出現異常，但從結果看他的打擊率並非只是因為人為的幸運而已。.319的預測打擊率只次於Bellinger跟LeMahieu。

Rendon has a great recipe for a high batting average. He doesn’t strike out much, sprays the ball all over the field, and makes a habit of swinging at the right pitches. Joining a lineup with both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani should help Rendon continue to see good pitches.

Rendon的高打擊率背後有各項條件的支持。他的三振不多，能把球打向球場任何地方。而且他有「打對的球」的習慣。他加入了有Mike Trout跟大谷翔平的打線，應該能幫助他持續看得到「好球」。

Mike Trout, Angels

Mike Trout，天使隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .326 (2012)
Projected 2020 BA: .297
Highest 60-game BA: .385 (2013)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.326（2012）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.297

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.385（2013）

No list of players with the potential to achieve greatness is complete without Trout, and the .400 chase is no exception. Trout’s .291 average in 2019 was his second-lowest in a qualified season, but his xBA was .311, tied for fifth-best among qualified hitters. In other words, based on his quality of contact and strikeouts, he should’ve hit for an even higher average.

如果一份有潛力完成偉大紀錄的名單上沒有Trout，就稱不上完整，競爭4成打擊率也不會是例外。Trout 2019年.291的打擊率是他生涯符合資格的球季中次低，但他的預期打擊率原本是.311，名列第5。換句話說，根據他的擊球質量以及三振數，他應該打出更高的打擊率。

A related element that will help him in this quest: Trout doesn’t chase much. His 17.9 percent chase rate last season was the lowest of his career, and ranked fourth-lowest among 146 players to see at least 1,000 out-of-zone pitches in 2019. Don’t hit the bad pitches, make quality contact on the good ones, and you’ve got a great chance at hitting .400 over a sustained period of time.

一個相關的因素可以幫助他達成這項要求（譯者註：高打擊率）：Trout並不追打壞球，他上個球季追打壞球的機率只有17.9％，是他生涯最低，在2019年146名看過1000顆以上好球帶以外的球之打者中，排名第4。不打壞球、對好球有好的擊球質量，你就有很好的機會在一個時間區段中，打出4成打擊率。

Christian Yelich, Brewers

Christian Yelich，釀酒人隊

Highest BA in qualified season: .329 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .304
Highest 60-game BA: .365 (2018)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.329（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.304

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.365（2018）

Yelich has won back-to-back National League batting titles, with a combined .327 average, so it’s easy to expect him to be in the running to reach .400 in 2020. His .313 xBA in 2019 was fourth-highest among qualified hitters, behind only Bellinger, LeMahieu and Rendon.

Yelich已連續兩年獲得國聯打擊王，平均打擊率.327，所以容易令人期待他能在2020競爭4成打擊率。他2019年的預測打擊率是.313，是符合資格的打者中第四高，只在Bellinger、LeMahieu及Rendon之後。

Yelich absolutely crushed fastballs (.347) and offspeed pitches (.380) in 2019, showing that pitchers have no good way to get him out. That makes him a serious candidate here.

2019年，Yelich快速球、慢球（offspeed pitches）打得非常好，打擊率分別是3成47、3成80，這顯示投手拿不出好的辦法讓他出局。這讓我們應嚴肅看待他是四割男的候選人。

SLEEPERS

爆冷門組

Luis Arraez, Twins

Luis Arraez，雙城隊

Highest BA: .334 (2019 -- only MLB season, did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .312
Highest 60-game BA: .340 (2019)

單一球季的最高打擊率：.334（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.312

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.340（2019）

Arraez caught a lot of eyes in 2019 for his elite bat-to-ball skills. He had a 93.3% contact rate, the highest among 273 players with at least 300 plate appearances. Arraez also barely struck out -- doing so in just 7.9% of plate appearances, the lowest among that same sample of hitters.

Arraez「把球打進球場」的好功夫，在2019年吸引了很多目光。他有93.3％的擊球率，是有300個打數以上的273個打者中最高的。Arraez也很少被三振，三振率只有7.9％，在有同樣數量樣本數的打者中最低。

譯者註：擊球率（Contact Rate）用來計算打者有多少個打數把球打入場中，無論是安打或出局。計算方式是：（打數-三振數）／打數。

Making a ton of contact and barely ever striking out seems like a good way to hit for a high batting average, and indeed he did over 366 plate appearances. His .312 projected batting average for 2020 is the highest according to Steamer.

把很多球打入場內，而且很少被三振，似乎是完成高打擊率的好方法，而且他確實只以366個打席完成。他2020年的預測打擊率3成12，是Steamer預測最高的打擊率。

Howie Kendrick, Nationals

Howie Kendrick，國民隊

Highest BA: .344 (2019 -- did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .308
Highest 60-game BA: .359 (2007)

單一球季的最高打擊率：.344（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.308

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.359（2007）

Kendrick already inscribed his name into the history books with two dramatic homers in the Nationals’ 2019 World Series run. Imagine if he added “.400 hitter” to his resume just a year later, too? He’s been a part-time player recently, racking up just 370 regular-season plate appearances last year, but if he plays enough, he has the tools to do it.

Kendrick在2019國民隊的世界大賽中擊出兩發戲劇性的全壘打，早已讓他的名字載入史冊。想像一下，如果一年後他也能在履歷中加上一個「四割男」的封號，會如何？Kendrick近年以替補球員身份出賽居多，在去年累計了370個打席，但如果他能打足夠多的比賽，他是有能力辦到的。

The addition of the designated hitter for at least 2020 in the National League should help on the playing-time front, as he’s the team’s primary projected DH. Kendrick had a .336 xBA in '19, highest among players with at least 250 plate appearances.

國聯2020年設置指定打擊，Kendrick也是國民隊規劃指定打擊的主要人選，應該在出賽時間上有助於Kendrick。Kendrick在2019的預測打擊率是.336 ，是至少250個打席的打者中最高。

Alex Verdugo, Red Sox

Alex Verdugo，紅襪隊

Highest BA: .294 (2019 -- did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .307
Highest 60-game BA: .305 (2019)

單一球季的最高打擊率：.294（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.307

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.305（2019）

A .400 chase certainly might make Boston fans feel a bit better about the Mookie Betts trade. Verdugo is up there with some very elite hitters in terms of strikeout rate. With 377 plate appearances of 2019, he struck out just 13% of the time, 19th-lowest among 241 players with at least 350 plate appearances.

能夠加入4成打擊率的競逐，勢必會讓紅襪球迷在Mookie Betts的交易後感到好一些。Verdugo的三振率讓他擠身厲害打者之列。他在2019年的377個打席中，只被三振了13％，是241名至少有350個打席的打者中第19低。

More evidence of his elite contact skills lies in his 90th-percentile, 16% whiff rate last year. As already noted, making consistent contact and avoiding strikeouts are two keys to this quest, so he’s in good shape there.

更多他擁有優異擊球技巧的證據是，他在去年只有16％的揮空率，比90％的打者都優異。正如已經強調過的，能穩定擊球，並且避免三振，是兩個完成高打擊率的關鍵需求，正如Verdugo有好的條件。

ROCKIES

洛磯隊組

Nolan Arenado

Highest BA in qualified season: .315 (2019)
Projected 2020 BA: .296
Highest 60-game BA: .346 (2019)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.315（2019）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.296

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.346（2019）

Arenado is a superstar, of course, but is just listed here to be with teammates. It’s hard to have a list of candidates to hit .400 without a few players whose home games are at Coors Field, given that a Rockie has won the NL batting title 11 times in the franchise’s 27 seasons, including in six of the past 13.

Arenado毫無疑問是超級巨星，只是為了要跟他的隊友並列而列在這裡。如果要列出可能的四割男很難不列入幾個主場是Coors Field的候選人。Rockie在27年隊史中，就囊括了11次打擊王，包括過去13個球季，拿下了6座。

There’s nowhere better to start than the team’s perennial MVP candidate. Arenado is on the heels of his highest career batting average, in a 2019 season that also included his highest 60-game qualified batting average stretch of .346 from mid-April through late June. He’s never had a strikeout rate higher than 18.1% in a season, and has a career mark of 15.2%.

沒什麼比從球隊長年的MVP候選人開始談起更適合了，Arenado在2019年的打擊率緊追他生涯最佳的打擊率。2019年4月中到6月下旬，他也創下60場區間，且符合資格 的最高打擊率.346。他的球季三振率從未高過18.1％，生涯三振率是15.2％。

Daniel Murphy
Highest BA in qualified season: .347 (2016)
Projected 2020 BA: .288
Highest 60-game BA: .374 (2016)

符合資格球季的最高打擊率：.347（2016）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.288

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：.374（2016）

Murphy is another good choice on the Rockies roster, especially because he’s likely to benefit from the DH addition like Kendrick. That should net him more at-bats, and likely some more consistency as well.

Murphy是洛磯隊打者中另一個非常好的選擇。尤其他可能像Kendrick一樣因指定打擊獲益，可以為他帶來更多打數，也可能讓他的打擊表現更穩定。

He had a down year in 2019, but was among the top 4% of the league or better in xBA in each of the 2016-18 seasons -- and that was before he played his home games at Coors Field. He struck out a bit more in 2019, too, but has historically been a low-strikeout player, which helps immensely.

2019年是他的低潮年，但他在2016-2018年球季的打擊率都能擠身聯盟前4％，或是比預測打擊率好——這還是在他的主場變成Coors Field之前。他在2019年也被三振比較多一點，但他的生涯仍是一個低三振率的打者，對他有極大的助益。

Yonathan Daza
Highest BA: .206 (2019 -- only MLB season, did not qualify)
Projected 2020 BA: .301
Highest 60-game BA: has not played 60 career MLB games

單一球季的最高打擊率：.206（就是2019球季的成績，並不符合資格）

steamerprojections.com預測2020打擊率：.301

以60場比賽為計算區間的最高打擊率：生涯還沒有打超過60場的MLB球季

This is a huge wild card -- but bear with the process here. Daza is the Rockies’ 11th-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline and had a 44-game stint in the Majors in 2019. But his chances at .400, which are relatively high according to Tango’s research, rest on this tenet: A player who hits .400 may be one who plays just enough to reach the 186-PA minimum to qualify for the batting title this year. In 1980, George Brett hit .390 -- one of the closest qualified bids at .400 since Williams’ feat.

這是一個大膽的黑馬預測——但請耐著性子看完分析。根據MLB Pipeline，Daza是洛磯隊排名第十一的潛力新秀，他在2019年只打了44場比賽。但根據MLB.com資深數據工程師Tom Tango的研究，Daza打出4成打擊率的機會相對高。是根據這個原則：今年成為四割男的球員，只要至少打夠186個打席，並能競逐打擊王寶座。1980年，George Brett的打擊率.390，是自Ted Williams之後，以最接近符合資格打席，且逼近4成的表現之一。

He did so in a year where he amassed 515 plate appearances after being limited with an ankle injury. That’s plenty of PAs, but just 13 more than the necessary 502 in a 162-game season. Clearly, Daza is not Brett, but he does have a .318 career average in the Minors, including .364 in 89 Triple-A games last year.

Brett在那年因為腳踝傷勢，打席數只有515。但已經足夠，比162場例行賽需要符合資格的502打席數多了13次。當然Daza非比Brett，但他在小聯盟有.318的平均打擊率，包括去年在3A打出.364。

Projections give Daza a high batting average this season, in a limited sample. If we extrapolate that sample to just barely making the qualified cutoff, he has fewer chances to lower that batting average, and therefore a decent chance to remain at a necessarily high level for the whole year.

在有限的樣本數內，預測給出Daza這個球季有高的打擊率。如果我們藉此推斷這樣的樣本數可以剛好達到符合資格的邊緣，他打出比預測低的打擊率的機率是較低的，所以他有較好的機會必然在今年保持較高的打擊水平。